Borderlines and Bottom Lines: Thailand’s Fragile Politics and the Rising Stakes with Cambodia
Thailand finds itself at a critical juncture. A deadly border skirmish with Cambodia has erupted into a full-blown diplomatic standoff, coinciding with internal political fractures that threaten the very survival of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s government. For investors, regional watchers, and public affairs strategists, the convergence of domestic volatility and cross-border tensions marks a period of uncertainty with high strategic implications.
On 28 May 2025, a confrontation near the disputed Chong Bok/Chang Bok border area left one Cambodian soldier dead and sparked a chain reaction of political and economic retaliation. While such incidents are not new, echoing memories of the 2008–2011 clashes around Preah Vihear, this round of tension unfolded under a far more fragile political atmosphere.
Cambodia responded swiftly. Trade sanctions were imposed on Thai agricultural imports and entertainment media, cross-border traffic was curtailed, and rhetoric sharpened. Just days later, a leaked audio recording of a phone conversation between Prime Minister Paetongtarn and former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen set off a firestorm in Bangkok. In the clip, the Thai leader was heard expressing personal pressure over the military response, suggesting possible concessions, remarks interpreted by many at home as weakness.
Diplomatic Fallout and Public Discontent Following the Prime Minister’s Leaked Conversation
The fallout was immediate. Public backlash surged. Critics, including within the ruling coalition, accused the Prime Minister of compromising national sovereignty. The leak came at a moment when Pheu Thai was already under pressure: a cabinet reshuffle aimed at reclaiming control of the Ministry of Interior from its key coalition partner, Bhumjaithai, had ignited internal strife.
On 18 June, Bhumjaithai withdrew from the coalition. Key ministers including Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, resigned. The exodus left a gaping hole in government and raised the spectre of either a no-confidence vote or an early dissolution of parliament.
Meanwhile, Thailand's Constitutional Court has accepted a petition questioning the Prime Minister’s qualifications based on the leaked conversation. If the court rules against her, Paetongtarn could be suspended or removed without dissolving the Cabinet, triggering a new round of political negotiations.
Photo Credit: Reuters
Strategic Implications of the Border Crisis for National Governance and Economic Stability
In early June, momentum began building toward the first cabinet reshuffle under Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s administration, aimed at reinforcing the government’s stability and positioning it for a full-term tenure. A central focus of the reshuffle is the Ministry of Interior, currently held by the Bhumjaithai Party under Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul. The ruling Pheu Thai Party has formally requested to reclaim this key portfolio, prompting Bhumjaithai to threaten a withdrawal from the coalition and a shift to the opposition if the request proceeds.
The move by Pheu Thai reflects mounting distrust, particularly in light of recent high-profile legal investigations linked to figures associated with Bhumjaithai. Strategically, regaining control of the Ministry of Interior would enable Pheu Thai to consolidate its influence over local administrative networks, especially in the Northeastern region, and to drive forward key policy initiatives such as casino legalisation and the development of integrated entertainment zones, both of which require oversight from the Ministry (Thai PBS). The outcome of this cabinet reshuffle is expected to have significant implications for the coalition's cohesion and the government’s broader legislative agenda.
The External Crisis
Despite ongoing internal political tensions, Thailand now faced escalating external challenges, further complicated by a leaked phone call between Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinwatra and Former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen. The call, reportedly discussing the recent border skirmish, revealed that Thailand’s decision to restrict cross-border movement had prompted swift retaliatory measures from Cambodia, including bans on Thai agricultural imports and the suspension of Thai media broadcasts.
The leaked audio has sparked significant controversy. In the recording, Prime Minister Paetongtarn appeared to criticise the Second Army Area Commander, referring to him as being “on the opposite side” or merely trying to “look cool”.
She also conveyed a sense of personal pressure stemming from domestic expectations over the border dispute. Notably, the Prime Minister expressed a willingness to accommodate Hun Sen’s concerns, including engaging with Thailand’s Ministry of Defense to potentially reopen border crossings (The Nation).
The fallout from the leaked conversation has generated strong public backlash, with critics accusing the Prime Minister of taking a weak stance in defending Thailand’s national interests and sovereignty. The tone of the conversation, coupled with perceived concessions to Cambodia, has ignited outrage among segments of the Thai public who view the remarks as undermining national dignity despite the traditionally close bilateral ties.
As a result, there is growing public pressure calling for the Prime Minister to resign from her position or to dissolve parliament and call for a new general election.
The End of Bhumjaithai Coalition Government
On June 18, a leaked audio clip surfaced on social media, coinciding with escalating internal tensions between the Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties over control of the Ministry of Interior. The fallout from this dual crisis culminated in Bhumjaithai’s formal withdrawal from the coalition government. In response, all Bhumjaithai affiliated ministers submitted their resignations, effective June 19.
The resignation include:
Mr Anutin Charnvirakul, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior
Mr Pipat Ratchakitprakarn, Minister of Labour
Mr Songsak Thongsri, Deputy Minister of Interior
Ms Sabida Thaisehth, Deputy Minister of Interior
Ms Supamas Isarabhakdi, Minister of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation
Police General Permpoon Chidchob, Minister of Education
Mr Surasak Phanjaratsapang, Deputy Minister of Education
Mr Naphinthorn Srisanpang, Deputy Minister of Commerce
Mr Paradorn Prissananantakul, Second Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives
Photo Credits: Bangkok Post
The Thai Politics at a Crossroads
Despite the leaked audio of Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s conversation with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen plunging the government into a major political crisis, the Pheu Thai-led administration remains intact. The leak has raised concerns about the government’s stability and drawn criticism from coalition partners, many of whom view the incident negatively.
Initially, the United Thai Nation Party (UTN) issued an ultimatum demanding the Prime Minister’s resignation. However, following a series of consultations and negotiations, their stance appears to have softened, as their leader later joined coalition discussions. Meanwhile, both the Democrat Party and the Chartthaipattana Party have publicly reaffirmed their support for the government, emphasising the importance of political stability and the need to focus on addressing national issues.
In response to mounting internal political pressure, the government is proceeding with a cabinet reshuffle to fill vacancies left by the resignation of Bhumjaithai ministers and to rebuild public confidence. This reshuffle is also a strategic move by the Pheu Thai Party to reassert control and push forward its key policy agendas, particularly through influential ministries.
The cabinet reshuffle list is expected to be finalised this week. Below is the current list of speculated appointments.
Ministry of Defense
Mr Phumtham Wechayachai as Minister of Defense (Pheu Thai Party)
Gen Natthapon Nakpanich as Deputy Minister of Defense (UTN Party)
Ministry of Interior
Mr Prasert Jantararuangtong as Minister of Interior (Pheu Thai Party)
Mr Dech-isra Khowthong as Deputy Minister of Interior (Democrat Party)
Ministry of Commerce (MOC)
Mr Jutuporn Buruspat as Minister of Commerce (Independent)
Mr Suchart Chomklin as Deputy Minister of Commerce (UTN Party)
Ministry of Education
Mr Yoschanan Wongswat or Dr. Cholnan Srikaew as Minister of Education (Pheu Thai Party)
Mr Chatawit Tandasit as Deputy Minister of Education (Independent)
Ministry of Digital Economy and Society (DES)
Mr Jakrapong Saengmanee as Minister of DEs (Pheu Thai Party)
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment
Mr Chalermchai Sri-on as Minister of Natural Resources and Environment (Democrat Party)
Ministry of Public Health
Mr Chaichana Dechdecho as Deputy Minister of Public Health (Democrat Party)
Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation (MHESI)
Ms Narumon Pinyosinwat as Minister of MHESI (Kla Thum Party)
Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives
Mr Attakorn Siritthayagon as Minister of Agriculture and Cooperative (Kla Thum Party)
Ministry of Energy
Mr Pirapan Salirathavibhaga as Minister of Energy (UTN Party)
Ministry of Industry
Mr Ekanat Prompan as Minister of Industry (UTN Party)
Thailand’s political landscape has grown increasingly volatile following the leaked audio of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s conversation with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen. The incident has sparked intense public backlash, disrupted coalition dynamics, and raised questions about the government’s legitimacy.
The Constitutional Court has agreed to review the Prime Minister’s qualifications in connection with the leaked audio. If the Court accepts the petition and orders the Prime Minister to temporarily step down, Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai could serve as Acting Prime Minister.
If the Court rules that the Prime Minister violated the Constitution, she would be removed from office individually, without dissolving the entire Cabinet. The House of Representatives would then begin the process of nominating and voting for a new Prime Minister from the approved candidate list.
What to Watch
Judicial Outcomes – The Constitutional Court’s decision on the Prime Minister will determine whether Thailand sees continuity or enters a leadership vacuum.
Coalition Realignment – Pheu Thai’s ability to secure new allies or form a minority government could dictate the path forward.
Cambodia ICJ Proceedings – Thailand’s rejection of international arbitration could inflame regional sensitivities and draw ASEAN or external mediators into the fray.
Investor Confidence – Policy clarity and diplomatic resolution are needed to reassure foreign investors amid market volatility.